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UEFA Champions League · Score Research

07-15 01:30 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Le

Levski Sofia

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 15.6% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 2:1 15.6%; 2:0 8.0%; 1:0 7.3% Half-time first pick 0:0 (53.8%)
Bo

Borac Banja Luka

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Levski Sofia side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Levski Sofia; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (53.8%); HT draw probability is 58.9%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队实力占优但攻防指数显示不稳，预计小胜或丢球。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 阿斯柏鲁卓夫球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 22℃～23℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal.

5. Sample and soft factors Strong sample

416 comparable matches; market bucket support is solid

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 15.6%
2:0 8.0%
1:0 7.3%
3:1 7.2%
3:0 5.3%
3:2 3.3%
4:0 2.6%
4:1 2.6%
FT market: side line 1.50 · total 2.50 · Bucket side_ou:home_favored/2.5
Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 2:1 15.6%; 2:0 8.0%; 1:0 7.3%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 53.8%
1:0 24.2%
0:1 8.2%
2:0 5.3%
1:1 4.8%
3:0 1.0%
2:1 1.0%
0:2 0.7%
HT market: side line 0.50 · total 1.00
Levski Sofia win57.4%
Draw29.0%
Borac Banja Luka win13.5%
Levski Sofia expected goals2.01
Borac Banja Luka expected goals1.07
Under 3.564.6%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight58.0%
Sample size416
Europe 1X2home 70.3% / draw 19.6% / away 10.1%

Key Variables

First-goal path Levski Sofia benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 29.0%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 64.6%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 503h 49m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 1.5 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Levski Sofia win · Actual side: Levski Sofia win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Levski Sofia vs Borac Banja Luka is 2:1 (15.6%). Levski Sofia side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队实力占优但攻防指数显示不稳，预计小胜或丢球。 HT first pick is 0:0 (53.8%); HT draw probability is 58.9%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only