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07-30 01:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Le

Lech Poznan

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 15.6% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 2:1 15.6%; 1:1 15.6%; 3:1 11.0%; 2:2 8.7% Half-time first pick 0:0 (59.4%)
Aa

Aarhus AGF

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Lech Poznan side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Lech Poznan; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (59.4%); HT draw probability is 64.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队主场占优但进攻效率低，客队进攻强但防守弱，预计有球。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 波兹南城市球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 24℃～25℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

199 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 15.6%
1:1 15.6%
3:1 11.0%
2:2 8.7%
1:2 7.6%
3:2 5.0%
2:3 3.6%
2:0 3.2%
FT market: side line 0.75 · total 3.00 · Bucket ah_ou:0.75/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 2:1 15.6%; 1:1 15.6%; 3:1 11.0%; 2:2 8.7%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 59.4%
1:0 19.9%
0:1 9.1%
1:1 4.5%
2:0 2.7%
0:2 1.3%
2:1 1.1%
3:0 0.7%
HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.25
Lech Poznan win53.4%
Draw27.9%
Aarhus AGF win18.8%
Lech Poznan expected goals2.20
Aarhus AGF expected goals1.43
Under 3.550.8%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight71.3%
Sample size199
Europe 1X2home 52.1% / draw 23.8% / away 24.1%

Key Variables

First-goal path Lech Poznan benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 27.9%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 50.8%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 144h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0.75 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Lech Poznan win · Actual side: Aarhus AGF win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Lech Poznan vs Aarhus AGF is 2:1 (15.6%). Lech Poznan side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队主场占优但进攻效率低，客队进攻强但防守弱，预计有球。 HT first pick is 0:0 (59.4%); HT draw probability is 64.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only