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07-15 03:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

La

Larne FC

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 11.6% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 11.6%; 3:1 9.1%; 3:0 8.1%; 4:0 6.0%; 4:1 4.4%; 3:2 3.9%; 5:0 3.4%; 5:1 3.0% Half-time first pick 0:0 (50.3%)
Tr

Tre Fiori

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Larne FC side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Larne FC; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (50.3%); HT draw probability is 54.3%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 实力悬殊，主队主场大胜可期，但客队死守可能限制进球数。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 16℃～17℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Strong sample

994 comparable matches; market bucket support is solid

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 11.6%
1:1 9.4%
3:1 9.1%
2:0 8.1%
3:0 8.1%
4:0 6.0%
1:0 5.6%
2:2 4.8%
FT market: side line 2.25 · total 3.00 · Bucket side_ou:home_favored/3.0
Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 11.6%; 3:1 9.1%; 3:0 8.1%; 4:0 6.0%; 4:1 4.4%; 3:2 3.9%; 5:0 3.4%; 5:1 3.0%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 50.3%
1:0 26.1%
2:0 8.2%
0:1 5.9%
1:1 3.8%
3:0 2.5%
2:1 1.1%
0:2 0.5%
HT market: side line 1.00 · total 1.25
Larne FC win72.3%
Draw17.4%
Tre Fiori win10.3%
Larne FC expected goals2.67
Tre Fiori expected goals0.99
Under 3.550.0%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight55.0%
Sample size994
Europe 1X2home 80.6% / draw 13.0% / away 6.4%

Key Variables

First-goal path Larne FC benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 17.4%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 50.0%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 502h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 2.25 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Larne FC win · Actual side: Larne FC win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Larne FC vs Tre Fiori is 2:1 (11.6%). Larne FC side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 实力悬殊，主队主场大胜可期，但客队死守可能限制进球数。 HT first pick is 0:0 (50.3%); HT draw probability is 54.3%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only