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07-22 03:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

La

Larne FC

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 13.1% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 1:2 13.1%; 1:3 8.5%; 0:3 5.9%; 1:4 5.1%; 0:4 3.6%; 2:3 3.3%; 2:4 2.2%; 1:5 1.9% Half-time first pick 0:0 (51.4%)
Cr

Crvena Zvezda

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Crvena Zvezda side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Crvena Zvezda; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (51.4%); HT draw probability is 56.8%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 红星实力碾压，拉恩主场难阻攻势，大小球3.0倾向大球，但让2球深盘存在轮换风险。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 阴天, 14°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Strong sample

536 comparable matches; market bucket support is solid

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 13.1%
1:1 11.1%
1:3 8.5%
0:2 6.9%
2:1 6.7%
2:2 6.2%
0:1 5.9%
0:3 5.9%
FT market: side line -2.00 · total 3.00 · Bucket side_ou:away_favored/3.0
Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 1:2 13.1%; 1:3 8.5%; 0:3 5.9%; 1:4 5.1%; 0:4 3.6%; 2:3 3.3%; 2:4 2.2%; 1:5 1.9%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 51.4%
0:1 22.1%
1:0 8.9%
0:2 7.1%
1:1 5.3%
0:3 1.9%
1:2 1.1%
2:0 1.0%
HT market: side line -0.75 · total 1.25
Larne FC win16.8%
Draw20.8%
Crvena Zvezda win62.4%
Larne FC expected goals1.19
Crvena Zvezda expected goals2.32
Under 3.553.8%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight55.0%
Sample size536
Europe 1X2home 8.1% / draw 14.4% / away 77.5%

Key Variables

First-goal path Crvena Zvezda benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 20.8%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 53.8%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 334h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap -2 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: Crvena Zvezda win · Actual side: Crvena Zvezda win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Larne FC vs Crvena Zvezda is 1:2 (13.1%). Crvena Zvezda side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 红星实力碾压，拉恩主场难阻攻势，大小球3.0倾向大球，但让2球深盘存在轮换风险。 HT first pick is 0:0 (51.4%); HT draw probability is 56.8%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only