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07-28 23:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Ku

KuPs

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 19.2% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 19.2%; 2:1 12.2%; 1:2 10.1% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.3%)
Sa

Sabah FK Baku

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength KuPs side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Sabah FK Baku; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.3%); HT draw probability is 66.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队防守稳固但进攻疲软，客队风格未知，节奏慢，总进球倾向低，阵容不确定性高。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 萨翁萨诺马特体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 大致天晴, 18℃～19℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

81 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 19.2%
2:1 12.2%
1:2 10.1%
2:2 7.8%
0:1 5.9%
1:0 5.1%
3:1 5.1%
0:0 4.8%
FT market: side line -0.25 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.25/2.5
Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 19.2%; 2:1 12.2%; 1:2 10.1%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.3%
1:0 15.2%
0:1 13.2%
1:1 3.6%
2:0 1.9%
0:2 1.7%
2:1 0.6%
1:2 0.6%
HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00
KuPs win35.3%
Draw33.7%
Sabah FK Baku win31.0%
KuPs expected goals1.52
Sabah FK Baku expected goals1.43
Under 3.567.1%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight50.3%
Sample size81
Europe 1X2home 33.8% / draw 26.2% / away 40.0%

Key Variables

First-goal path KuPs benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 33.7%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 67.1%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 170h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap -0.25 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: KuPs win · Actual side: Sabah FK Baku win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for KuPs vs Sabah FK Baku is 1:1 (19.2%). KuPs side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队防守稳固但进攻疲软，客队风格未知，节奏慢，总进球倾向低，阵容不确定性高。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.3%); HT draw probability is 66.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only