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07-14 23:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Ku

KuPs

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 16.7% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 16.7%; 3:1 10.3%; 4:2 4.7%; 3:2 3.9%; 3:0 3.1%; 4:1 2.9%; 5:1 2.3%; 4:0 1.8% Half-time first pick 0:0 (51.4%)
FC

FC Vardar Skopje

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength KuPs side rates higher

The handicap leans toward KuPs; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (51.4%); HT draw probability is 57.4%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队防守强但进攻弱，客队未知；总进球倾向保守，主队小胜概率高；数据缺失较多，信心中等。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 萨翁萨诺马特体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 20℃～21℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

144 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 16.7%
1:1 13.7%
3:1 10.3%
1:2 8.1%
1:0 4.8%
4:2 4.7%
2:0 4.7%
2:2 4.6%
FT market: side line 1.00 · total 3.00 · Bucket ah_ou:1.0/3.0
Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 16.7%; 3:1 10.3%; 4:2 4.7%; 3:2 3.9%; 3:0 3.1%; 4:1 2.9%; 5:1 2.3%; 4:0 1.8%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 51.4%
1:0 23.5%
0:1 9.0%
1:1 5.7%
2:0 5.5%
2:1 1.4%
3:0 1.2%
0:2 0.9%
HT market: side line 0.50 · total 1.25
KuPs win59.9%
Draw22.5%
FC Vardar Skopje win17.6%
KuPs expected goals2.24
FC Vardar Skopje expected goals1.31
Under 3.555.4%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight64.3%
Sample size144
Europe 1X2home 62.4% / draw 20.5% / away 17.1%

Key Variables

First-goal path KuPs benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 22.5%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 55.4%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 506h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 1 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: KuPs win · Actual side: FC Vardar Skopje win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for KuPs vs FC Vardar Skopje is 2:1 (16.7%). KuPs side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队防守强但进攻弱，客队未知；总进球倾向保守，主队小胜概率高；数据缺失较多，信心中等。 HT first pick is 0:0 (51.4%); HT draw probability is 57.4%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only