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07-15 02:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

KF

KF Drita Gjilan

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 26.7% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 26.7%; 2:1 14.9%; 1:2 10.3% Half-time first pick 0:0 (63.7%)
Ka

Kauno Zalgiris

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Draw carries the highest weight

The Asian handicap is close to level, with no clear market gap.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (63.7%); HT draw probability is 67.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 双方实力接近但数据样本薄；中立场地+资格赛战意强；模型偏向平局但客队进攻偏弱；需防客队偷球。

4. Venue factor Neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 16℃～17℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

229 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 26.7%
2:1 14.9%
1:2 10.3%
2:2 9.4%
2:3 4.9%
3:1 4.0%
0:0 3.8%
1:0 3.7%
FT market: side line 0.00 · total 2.00 · Bucket ah_ou:0.0/2.0
Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 26.7%; 2:1 14.9%; 1:2 10.3%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 63.7%
1:0 14.7%
0:1 13.3%
1:1 3.3%
2:0 1.7%
0:2 1.6%
2:1 0.5%
1:2 0.5%
HT market: side line 0.00 · total 0.75
KF Drita Gjilan win31.6%
Draw41.3%
Kauno Zalgiris win27.1%
KF Drita Gjilan expected goals1.53
Kauno Zalgiris expected goals1.46
Under 3.567.7%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight74.1%
Sample size229
Europe 1X2home 38.3% / draw 28.8% / away 32.8%

Key Variables

First-goal path KF Drita Gjilan benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 41.3%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 67.7%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 503h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0 · total 2

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: draw · Actual side: Kauno Zalgiris win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for KF Drita Gjilan vs Kauno Zalgiris is 1:1 (26.7%). Draw carries the highest weight. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 双方实力接近但数据样本薄；中立场地+资格赛战意强；模型偏向平局但客队进攻偏弱；需防客队偷球。 HT first pick is 0:0 (63.7%); HT draw probability is 67.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only