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07-15 00:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

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Inter Club Escaldes

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 14.1% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 14.1%; 3:1 10.6%; 3:2 5.0%; 4:1 3.5%; 3:0 3.1%; 4:2 2.5%; 5:1 2.3%; 4:0 1.8% Half-time first pick 0:0 (59.2%)
Li

Lincoln Red Imps FC

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Inter Club Escaldes side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Inter Club Escaldes; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (59.2%); HT draw probability is 63.9%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队安道超2主场，实力占优；客队林肯红魔直布罗陀联赛，市场支持主胜，但大小球深盘，看好主队取胜且有失球。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 23℃～24℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

198 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 14.1%
1:1 13.5%
3:1 10.6%
2:2 8.1%
1:2 7.0%
3:2 5.0%
2:0 4.3%
1:0 3.7%
FT market: side line 0.75 · total 3.25 · Bucket ah_ou:0.75/3.0
Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 14.1%; 3:1 10.6%; 3:2 5.0%; 4:1 3.5%; 3:0 3.1%; 4:2 2.5%; 5:1 2.3%; 4:0 1.8%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 59.2%
1:0 19.9%
0:1 9.1%
1:1 4.5%
2:0 2.8%
0:2 1.3%
2:1 1.1%
3:0 0.7%
HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.25
Inter Club Escaldes win56.4%
Draw25.4%
Lincoln Red Imps FC win18.2%
Inter Club Escaldes expected goals2.26
Lincoln Red Imps FC expected goals1.37
Under 3.550.4%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight55.0%
Sample size198
Europe 1X2home 52.2% / draw 22.6% / away 25.2%

Key Variables

First-goal path Inter Club Escaldes benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 25.4%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 50.4%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 505h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0.75 · total 3.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Inter Club Escaldes win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Inter Club Escaldes vs Lincoln Red Imps FC is 2:1 (14.1%). Inter Club Escaldes side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队安道超2主场，实力占优；客队林肯红魔直布罗陀联赛，市场支持主胜，但大小球深盘，看好主队取胜且有失球。 HT first pick is 0:0 (59.2%); HT draw probability is 63.9%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only