← Back to UEFA Champions League center 中文

UEFA Champions League · Score Research

07-29 02:45 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

He

Heart of Midlothian

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 15.0% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 2:1 15.0%; 3:1 7.8%; 3:2 5.8%; 4:2 4.0% Half-time first pick 0:0 (59.3%)
St

Sturm Graz

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Heart of Midlothian side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Heart of Midlothian; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (59.3%); HT draw probability is 64.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 哈茨主场占优，格拉茨进攻有威胁，但阵容未知，可能高比分。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / weather risk

Venue: 泰因河城堡球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 微雨, 20℃～21℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather creates a disruption signal, so high-tempo attacking chains and blowout tails are treated more carefully. The totals line is high, but the weather-risk signal keeps unconditional open-game assumptions under review.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

168 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 15.0%
3:1 7.8%
3:2 5.8%
4:2 4.0%
1:0 3.4%
2:0 3.0%
4:1 2.6%
5:1 2.2%
FT market: side line 0.50 · total 3.00 · Bucket ah_ou:0.5/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 2:1 15.0%; 3:1 7.8%; 3:2 5.8%; 4:2 4.0%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 59.3%
1:0 19.8%
0:1 9.2%
1:1 4.5%
2:0 2.7%
0:2 1.4%
2:1 1.1%
3:0 0.7%
HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.25
Heart of Midlothian win49.7%
Draw28.5%
Sturm Graz win21.8%
Heart of Midlothian expected goals2.06
Sturm Graz expected goals1.49
Under 3.554.2%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight67.7%
Sample size168
Europe 1X2home 46.2% / draw 25.5% / away 28.3%

Key Variables

First-goal path Heart of Midlothian benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 28.5%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 54.2%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 166h 34m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0.5 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Heart of Midlothian win · Actual side: Sturm Graz win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Heart of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz is 2:1 (15.0%). Heart of Midlothian side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 哈茨主场占优，格拉茨进攻有威胁，但阵容未知，可能高比分。 HT first pick is 0:0 (59.3%); HT draw probability is 64.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only