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UEFA Champions League · Score Research

07-30 01:30 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Ha

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 15.4% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 2:1 15.4%; 3:1 10.0%; 3:2 4.8%; 2:0 2.9% Half-time first pick 0:0 (59.6%)
Vi

Vikingur Reykjavik

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Hapoel Beer Sheva side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Hapoel Beer Sheva; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (59.6%); HT draw probability is 64.3%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队攻击强且主队防守漏，客队有望进球；主队攻击弱但市场让球，不确定性大。

4. Venue factor neutral / normal weather

Venue: 特纳体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 26℃～27℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

199 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 15.4%
3:1 10.0%
3:2 4.8%
2:0 2.9%
1:0 2.9%
4:1 2.5%
4:2 2.0%
5:1 1.8%
FT market: side line 0.75 · total 3.00 · Bucket ah_ou:0.75/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 2:1 15.4%; 3:1 10.0%; 3:2 4.8%; 2:0 2.9%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 59.6%
1:0 19.3%
0:1 9.5%
1:1 4.5%
2:0 2.6%
0:2 1.4%
2:1 1.0%
3:0 0.6%
HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.25
Hapoel Beer Sheva win48.7%
Draw29.6%
Vikingur Reykjavik win21.8%
Hapoel Beer Sheva expected goals2.06
Vikingur Reykjavik expected goals1.49
Under 3.552.8%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight71.3%
Sample size199
Europe 1X2home 51.4% / draw 23.8% / away 24.8%

Key Variables

First-goal path Hapoel Beer Sheva benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 29.6%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 52.8%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 143h 49m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0.75 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Hapoel Beer Sheva win · Actual side: Hapoel Beer Sheva win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Vikingur Reykjavik is 2:1 (15.4%). Hapoel Beer Sheva side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队攻击强且主队防守漏，客队有望进球；主队攻击弱但市场让球，不确定性大。 HT first pick is 0:0 (59.6%); HT draw probability is 64.3%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only