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07-30 02:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Gornik Zabrze

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 14.6% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:2 14.6%; 1:1 13.2%; 1:3 9.0%; 0:1 6.8% Half-time first pick 0:0 (45.4%)

Fenerbahce

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Fenerbahce side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Fenerbahce; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (45.4%); HT draw probability is 53.2%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队费内巴切实力占优但总球盘2.75偏大，主队主场或可破门，预计开放场面。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 扎布热戈尔尼克体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 25℃～26℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

73 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 14.6%

1:1 13.2%

1:3 9.0%

0:1 6.8%

2:2 6.6%

2:1 6.4%

1:4 5.8%

0:2 5.5%

FT market: side line -1.00 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:-1.0/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:2 14.6%; 1:1 13.2%; 1:3 9.0%; 0:1 6.8%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 45.4%

0:1 23.8%

1:0 10.2%

1:1 7.5%

0:2 7.2%

1:2 1.7%

0:3 1.2%

2:0 1.1%

HT market: side line -0.50 · total 1.25

Gornik Zabrze win19.3%

Draw24.0%

Fenerbahce win56.7%

Gornik Zabrze expected goals1.27

Fenerbahce expected goals2.04

Under 3.557.3%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight47.7%

Sample size73

Europe 1X2home 17.8% / draw 22.0% / away 60.2%

Key Variables

First-goal path Fenerbahce benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 24.0%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 57.3%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 143h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap -1 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: Fenerbahce win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Gornik Zabrze vs Fenerbahce is 1:2 (14.6%). Fenerbahce side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队费内巴切实力占优但总球盘2.75偏大，主队主场或可破门，预计开放场面。 HT first pick is 0:0 (45.4%); HT draw probability is 53.2%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only