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07-22 02:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Fe

Fenerbahce

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 13.8% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 13.8%; 3:1 10.0%; 3:0 5.8%; 4:1 4.8%; 3:2 4.4%; 4:0 4.1%; 5:1 3.1%; 4:2 2.8% Half-time first pick 0:0 (39.7%)
Go

Gornik Zabrze

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Fenerbahce side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Fenerbahce; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (39.7%); HT draw probability is 46.3%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队攻击指数高但防守稳，主队主场让2球深盘，客队偷球机会大，总球偏大但主队未必大胜。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 苏克鲁萨拉科格鲁球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 27℃～28℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Strong sample

995 comparable matches; market bucket support is solid

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 13.8%
1:1 11.6%
3:1 10.0%
2:0 6.4%
3:0 5.8%
2:2 5.5%
1:2 5.2%
4:1 4.8%
FT market: side line 2.00 · total 3.25 · Bucket side_ou:home_favored/3.0
Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 13.8%; 3:1 10.0%; 3:0 5.8%; 4:1 4.8%; 3:2 4.4%; 4:0 4.1%; 5:1 3.1%; 4:2 2.8%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 39.7%
1:0 25.8%
2:0 13.1%
1:1 6.3%
0:1 4.9%
3:0 3.2%
0:2 1.9%
2:1 1.6%
HT market: side line 1.00 · total 1.50
Fenerbahce win67.6%
Draw20.2%
Gornik Zabrze win12.2%
Fenerbahce expected goals2.54
Gornik Zabrze expected goals1.12
Under 3.550.3%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight55.0%
Sample size995
Europe 1X2home 78.0% / draw 13.9% / away 8.1%

Key Variables

First-goal path Fenerbahce benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 20.2%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 50.3%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 335h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 2 · total 3.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Fenerbahce win · Actual side: Fenerbahce win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Fenerbahce vs Gornik Zabrze is 2:1 (13.8%). Fenerbahce side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队攻击指数高但防守稳，主队主场让2球深盘，客队偷球机会大，总球偏大但主队未必大胜。 HT first pick is 0:0 (39.7%); HT draw probability is 46.3%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only