← Back to UEFA Champions League center 中文

UEFA Champions League · Score Research

07-22 00:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

FC

FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 16.9% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:1 16.9%; 1:2 14.2%; 2:1 12.2%; 1:3 7.3% Half-time first pick 0:0 (57.0%)
Sl

Slovan Bratislava

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Slovan Bratislava side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Slovan Bratislava; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (57.0%); HT draw probability is 63.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队防守稳固，主队进攻稍强，节奏可能偏慢，客队反击机会。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 25°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

121 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 16.9%
1:2 14.2%
2:1 12.2%
1:3 7.3%
2:2 6.6%
0:1 4.8%
2:3 4.4%
3:1 3.8%
FT market: side line -0.50 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.5/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:1 16.9%; 1:2 14.2%; 2:1 12.2%; 1:3 7.3%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 57.0%
0:1 16.7%
1:0 12.6%
1:1 5.9%
0:2 3.4%
2:0 2.1%
1:2 0.8%
2:1 0.5%
HT market: side line -0.25 · total 1.25
FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi win29.2%
Draw28.6%
Slovan Bratislava win42.2%
FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi expected goals1.48
Slovan Bratislava expected goals1.75
Under 3.562.0%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight60.2%
Sample size121
Europe 1X2home 27.4% / draw 25.5% / away 47.1%

Key Variables

First-goal path Slovan Bratislava benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 28.6%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 62.0%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 337h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap -0.5 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Slovan Bratislava win · Actual side: Slovan Bratislava win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi vs Slovan Bratislava is 1:1 (16.9%). Slovan Bratislava side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队防守稳固，主队进攻稍强，节奏可能偏慢，客队反击机会。 HT first pick is 0:0 (57.0%); HT draw probability is 63.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only