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UEFA Champions League · Score Research

07-15 00:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

FC

FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 16.4% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 16.4%; 3:1 10.3%; 3:2 7.0%; 4:1 4.6%; 3:0 3.5%; 4:2 2.8%; 5:1 2.5%; 4:0 2.4% Half-time first pick 0:0 (51.1%)
FC

FC Flora Tallinn

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi side rates higher

The handicap leans toward FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (51.1%); HT draw probability is 57.3%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队格鲁甲榜首实力占优，但防守有漏洞；客队爱沙甲第2攻击数据未知，可能偷袭。总进球盘3.25偏大，天气晴好。阵容不确定性中等。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 22℃～23℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

112 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 16.4%
3:1 10.3%
1:1 10.3%
3:2 7.0%
2:2 6.2%
1:2 5.9%
1:0 4.8%
4:1 4.6%
FT market: side line 1.25 · total 3.25 · Bucket ah_ou:1.25/3.0
Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 16.4%; 3:1 10.3%; 3:2 7.0%; 4:1 4.6%; 3:0 3.5%; 4:2 2.8%; 5:1 2.5%; 4:0 2.4%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 51.1%
1:0 23.4%
0:1 9.1%
1:1 5.8%
2:0 5.5%
2:1 1.4%
3:0 1.2%
0:2 0.9%
HT market: side line 0.50 · total 1.25
FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi win65.4%
Draw20.7%
FC Flora Tallinn win13.9%
FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi expected goals2.43
FC Flora Tallinn expected goals1.28
Under 3.549.3%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight55.0%
Sample size112
Europe 1X2home 62.2% / draw 20.0% / away 17.8%

Key Variables

First-goal path FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 20.7%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 49.3%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 505h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 1.25 · total 3.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi vs FC Flora Tallinn is 2:1 (16.4%). FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队格鲁甲榜首实力占优，但防守有漏洞；客队爱沙甲第2攻击数据未知，可能偷袭。总进球盘3.25偏大，天气晴好。阵容不确定性中等。 HT first pick is 0:0 (51.1%); HT draw probability is 57.3%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only