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07-23 03:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Eg

Egnatia

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 18.8% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 18.8%; 1:2 10.8%; 2:1 8.6% Half-time first pick 0:0 (58.8%)
NK

NK Publikum Celje

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength NK Publikum Celje side rates higher

The handicap leans toward NK Publikum Celje; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (58.8%); HT draw probability is 64.2%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队采列实力稍强但主队主场，平局概率高，双方节奏偏慢但客队压迫略强，主队有偷球机会。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 26℃～27℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

53 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 18.8%
1:2 10.8%
2:1 8.6%
0:1 8.0%
2:2 7.1%
1:0 6.1%
1:3 5.2%
0:2 5.1%
FT market: side line -0.50 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.5/2.5
Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 18.8%; 1:2 10.8%; 2:1 8.6%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 58.8%
0:1 16.8%
1:0 12.4%
1:1 5.3%
0:2 3.2%
2:0 1.9%
1:2 0.6%
0:3 0.4%
HT market: side line -0.25 · total 1.00
Egnatia win27.8%
Draw32.2%
NK Publikum Celje win40.0%
Egnatia expected goals1.29
NK Publikum Celje expected goals1.54
Under 3.568.4%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight39.8%
Sample size53
Europe 1X2home 26.6% / draw 27.0% / away 46.4%

Key Variables

First-goal path NK Publikum Celje benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 32.2%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 68.4%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 310h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap -0.5 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: NK Publikum Celje win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Egnatia vs NK Publikum Celje is 1:1 (18.8%). NK Publikum Celje side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队采列实力稍强但主队主场，平局概率高，双方节奏偏慢但客队压迫略强，主队有偷球机会。 HT first pick is 0:0 (58.8%); HT draw probability is 64.2%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only