← Back to UEFA Champions League center 中文

UEFA Champions League · Score Research

07-16 03:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Eg

Egnatia

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 15.5% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 2:1 15.5%; 3:1 9.2%; 1:0 7.1% Half-time first pick 0:0 (61.0%)
CS

CS Petrocub

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Egnatia side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Egnatia; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (61.0%); HT draw probability is 65.2%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队让球但排名低，客队联赛冠军但未知；炎热天气可能影响节奏，模型看好主胜但信息有限。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 33℃～34℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

102 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 15.5%
3:1 9.2%
1:0 7.1%
2:0 6.1%
4:1 3.5%
3:2 3.0%
3:0 2.9%
4:0 1.1%
FT market: side line 0.75 · total 2.25 · Bucket ah_ou:0.75/2.0
Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 2:1 15.5%; 3:1 9.2%; 1:0 7.1%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 61.0%
1:0 20.0%
0:1 8.9%
1:1 4.0%
2:0 2.5%
0:2 1.2%
2:1 0.9%
3:0 0.6%
HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.00
Egnatia win51.9%
Draw34.6%
CS Petrocub win13.6%
Egnatia expected goals1.79
CS Petrocub expected goals1.07
Under 3.569.8%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight56.0%
Sample size102
Europe 1X2home 51.4% / draw 27.1% / away 21.5%

Key Variables

First-goal path Egnatia benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 34.6%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 69.8%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 478h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0.75 · total 2.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Egnatia win · Actual side: Egnatia win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Egnatia vs CS Petrocub is 2:1 (15.5%). Egnatia side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队让球但排名低，客队联赛冠军但未知；炎热天气可能影响节奏，模型看好主胜但信息有限。 HT first pick is 0:0 (61.0%); HT draw probability is 65.2%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only