← Back to UEFA Champions League center 中文

UEFA Champions League · Score Research

07-29 02:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Di

Dinamo Zagreb

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 10.8% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 10.8%; 3:1 9.1%; 3:0 7.9%; 4:1 7.2%; 4:0 4.8%; 4:2 3.2%; 5:1 3.0%; 3:2 2.6% Half-time first pick 0:0 (51.3%)
Th

Thun

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Dinamo Zagreb side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Dinamo Zagreb; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (51.3%); HT draw probability is 57.2%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主场强队，攻击力明显占优，客队防守漏洞多，总球盘3.0支持大球。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / heat

Venue: 马克西米尔体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 29℃～30℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

58 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 10.8%
3:1 9.1%
2:0 8.0%
3:0 7.9%
4:1 7.2%
1:0 5.8%
4:0 4.8%
4:2 3.2%
FT market: side line 1.50 · total 3.00 · Bucket ah_ou:1.5/3.0
Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 10.8%; 3:1 9.1%; 3:0 7.9%; 4:1 7.2%; 4:0 4.8%; 4:2 3.2%; 5:1 3.0%; 3:2 2.6%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 51.3%
1:0 23.6%
0:1 8.9%
1:1 5.6%
2:0 5.6%
2:1 1.4%
3:0 1.2%
0:2 0.8%
HT market: side line 0.50 · total 1.25
Dinamo Zagreb win70.8%
Draw18.9%
Thun win10.2%
Dinamo Zagreb expected goals2.59
Thun expected goals1.01
Under 3.551.6%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight42.0%
Sample size58
Europe 1X2home 68.1% / draw 18.6% / away 13.3%

Key Variables

First-goal path Dinamo Zagreb benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 18.9%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 51.6%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 167h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 1.5 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Dinamo Zagreb win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun is 2:1 (10.8%). Dinamo Zagreb side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主场强队，攻击力明显占优，客队防守漏洞多，总球盘3.0支持大球。 HT first pick is 0:0 (51.3%); HT draw probability is 57.2%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only