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07-30 01:30 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

CS

CS Universitatea Craiova

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 25.2% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 25.2%; 2:1 18.0%; 1:2 8.9% Half-time first pick 0:0 (60.9%)
Le

Levski Sofia

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength CS Universitatea Craiova side rates higher

The handicap leans toward CS Universitatea Craiova; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (60.9%); HT draw probability is 65.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队让球但模型平局概率高，节奏偏慢，炎热天气不利大球，看好小比分平局或主胜一球。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 30℃～31℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

201 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 25.2%
2:1 18.0%
1:2 8.9%
2:2 6.3%
3:1 5.8%
1:0 4.8%
3:2 4.3%
0:0 3.6%
FT market: side line 0.50 · total 2.25 · Bucket ah_ou:0.5/2.0
Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 25.2%; 2:1 18.0%; 1:2 8.9%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 60.9%
1:0 19.8%
0:1 9.1%
1:1 4.1%
2:0 2.4%
0:2 1.2%
2:1 0.9%
3:0 0.6%
HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.00
CS Universitatea Craiova win44.4%
Draw35.8%
Levski Sofia win19.9%
CS Universitatea Craiova expected goals1.69
Levski Sofia expected goals1.26
Under 3.570.1%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight71.5%
Sample size201
Europe 1X2home 44.2% / draw 28.3% / away 27.5%

Key Variables

First-goal path CS Universitatea Craiova benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 35.8%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 70.1%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 143h 49m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0.5 · total 2.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: CS Universitatea Craiova win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for CS Universitatea Craiova vs Levski Sofia is 1:1 (25.2%). CS Universitatea Craiova side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队让球但模型平局概率高，节奏偏慢，炎热天气不利大球，看好小比分平局或主胜一球。 HT first pick is 0:0 (60.9%); HT draw probability is 65.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only