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07-30 02:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Cr

Crvena Zvezda

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 3:0 Probability 8.1% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 3:0 8.1%; 2:1 7.9%; 3:1 7.9%; 4:0 7.3%; 4:1 6.5%; 5:0 5.5%; 5:1 3.9%; 3:2 3.8% Half-time first pick 1:0 (31.1%)
La

Larne FC

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Crvena Zvezda side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Crvena Zvezda; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 1:0

HT first pick is 1:0 (31.1%); HT draw probability is 35.3%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 4.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 红星主场强势，拉恩实力悬殊，但阵容数据有限，天气炎热影响节奏。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / heat

Venue: 红星体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 30℃～31℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

209 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

3:0 8.1%
2:1 7.9%
3:1 7.9%
4:0 7.3%
4:1 6.5%
2:0 6.5%
1:1 6.0%
5:0 5.5%
FT market: side line 3.00 · total 4.00 · Bucket side_ou:home_favored/4.0
Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 3:0 8.1%; 2:1 7.9%; 3:1 7.9%; 4:0 7.3%; 4:1 6.5%; 5:0 5.5%; 5:1 3.9%; 3:2 3.8%

Half-Time Score Distribution

1:0 31.1%
0:0 28.7%
2:0 14.0%
1:1 6.5%
3:0 5.0%
0:1 5.0%
2:1 2.6%
4:0 1.6%
HT market: side line 1.25 · total 1.75
Crvena Zvezda win76.2%
Draw12.7%
Larne FC win11.1%
Crvena Zvezda expected goals3.19
Larne FC expected goals1.04
Under 3.538.0%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight45.0%
Sample size209
Europe 1X2home 86.1% / draw 9.0% / away 5.0%

Key Variables

First-goal path Crvena Zvezda benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 1:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 12.7%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 38.0%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 143h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 3 · total 4

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 3:0

Predicted side: Crvena Zvezda win · Actual side: Crvena Zvezda win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Crvena Zvezda vs Larne FC is 3:0 (8.1%). Crvena Zvezda side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 红星主场强势，拉恩实力悬殊，但阵容数据有限，天气炎热影响节奏。 HT first pick is 1:0 (31.1%); HT draw probability is 35.3%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only