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UEFA Champions League · Score Research

07-22 01:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Aa

Aarhus AGF

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 17.9% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 17.9%; 2:1 14.9%; 2:2 11.3% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.4%)
Le

Lech Poznan

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Aarhus AGF side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Aarhus AGF; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.4%); HT draw probability is 66.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 中立场丹麦超冠军对波兰超冠军，主队攻击强客队防守弱但客队攻击乏力，市场倾向平局小比分。

4. Venue factor neutral / normal weather

Venue: 奥胡斯体育公园. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 19℃～20℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

139 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 17.9%
2:1 14.9%
2:2 11.3%
1:2 11.2%
3:1 5.6%
1:0 4.2%
1:3 3.8%
0:0 3.7%
FT market: side line 0.25 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:0.25/2.5
Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 17.9%; 2:1 14.9%; 2:2 11.3%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.4%
1:0 15.0%
0:1 13.4%
1:1 3.6%
2:0 1.9%
0:2 1.7%
2:1 0.6%
1:2 0.6%
HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00
Aarhus AGF win36.8%
Draw35.2%
Lech Poznan win28.1%
Aarhus AGF expected goals1.66
Lech Poznan expected goals1.49
Under 3.562.6%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight63.5%
Sample size139
Europe 1X2home 39.6% / draw 28.8% / away 31.6%

Key Variables

First-goal path Aarhus AGF benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 35.2%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 62.6%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 336h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0.25 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Aarhus AGF win · Actual side: Lech Poznan win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Aarhus AGF vs Lech Poznan is 1:1 (17.9%). Aarhus AGF side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 中立场丹麦超冠军对波兰超冠军，主队攻击强客队防守弱但客队攻击乏力，市场倾向平局小比分。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.4%); HT draw probability is 66.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only