Swedish Allsvenskan · Score Research

07-12 20:00 CST · Swedish Allsvenskan · Separate HT/FT models

Vasteras SK FK

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 18.7% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 18.7%; 2:1 15.7%; 2:2 10.7% Half-time first pick 0:0 (60.6%)

Degerfors IF

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Vasteras SK FK side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Vasteras SK FK; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (60.6%); HT draw probability is 65.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队优势小，攻击力一般但防守漏球多；客队攻击弱，市场指向平局，总进球倾向偏低。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 16℃～17℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

138 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 18.7%

2:1 15.7%

2:2 10.7%

1:2 10.2%

3:1 6.2%

1:0 4.6%

0:0 4.0%

3:2 3.7%

FT market: side line 0.25 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:0.25/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 18.7%; 2:1 15.7%; 2:2 10.7%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 60.6%

1:0 19.8%

0:1 9.1%

1:1 4.2%

2:0 2.5%

0:2 1.3%

2:1 0.9%

3:0 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.00

Vasteras SK FK win40.2%

Draw35.6%

Degerfors IF win24.2%

Vasteras SK FK expected goals1.70

Degerfors IF expected goals1.39

Under 3.563.9%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight63.3%

Sample size138

Europe 1X2home 43.8% / draw 26.4% / away 29.8%

Key Variables

First-goal path Vasteras SK FK benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 35.6%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 63.9%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:58 CST (started/finished about 557h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:58

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0.25 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Vasteras SK FK win · Actual side: Vasteras SK FK win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Vasteras SK FK vs Degerfors IF is 1:1 (18.7%). Vasteras SK FK side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队优势小，攻击力一般但防守漏球多；客队攻击弱，市场指向平局，总进球倾向偏低。 HT first pick is 0:0 (60.6%); HT draw probability is 65.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only