Swedish Allsvenskan · Score Research

07-11 23:30 CST · Swedish Allsvenskan · Separate HT/FT models

Orgryte

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 14.5% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 1:2 14.5%; 1:3 9.6%; 1:4 6.2%; 2:3 4.9%; 0:3 3.4%; 2:4 2.7%; 0:4 1.7%; 1:5 1.3% Half-time first pick 0:0 (43.0%)

Hacken

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Hacken side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Hacken; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (43.0%); HT draw probability is 51.4%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 赫根实力明显占优，但节奏偏慢；主场保级战意不明；阵容信息缺失，谨慎看好客胜小比分。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 17℃～18℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

72 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 14.5%

1:1 12.6%

1:3 9.6%

2:1 6.6%

2:2 6.5%

1:4 6.2%

0:1 5.6%

2:3 4.9%

FT market: side line -1.00 · total 3.25 · Bucket ah_ou:-1.0/3.0

Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 1:2 14.5%; 1:3 9.6%; 1:4 6.2%; 2:3 4.9%; 0:3 3.4%; 2:4 2.7%; 0:4 1.7%; 1:5 1.3%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 43.0%

0:1 24.0%

1:0 10.4%

1:1 8.1%

0:2 7.6%

1:2 2.0%

0:3 1.3%

2:0 1.2%

HT market: side line -0.50 · total 1.25

Orgryte win19.3%

Draw22.7%

Hacken win58.0%

Orgryte expected goals1.33

Hacken expected goals2.16

Under 3.553.4%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight47.4%

Sample size72

Europe 1X2home 19.3% / draw 20.6% / away 60.1%

Key Variables

First-goal path Hacken benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 22.7%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 53.4%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:58 CST (started/finished about 577h 49m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:58

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap -1 · total 3.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: Hacken win · Actual side: Orgryte win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Orgryte vs Hacken is 1:2 (14.5%). Hacken side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 赫根实力明显占优，但节奏偏慢；主场保级战意不明；阵容信息缺失，谨慎看好客胜小比分。 HT first pick is 0:0 (43.0%); HT draw probability is 51.4%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only