Swedish Allsvenskan · Score Research

07-11 21:00 CST · Swedish Allsvenskan · Separate HT/FT models

Mjallby AIF

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 14.6% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 2:1 14.6%; 3:1 7.5%; 3:2 5.6%; 1:0 4.1% Half-time first pick 0:0 (60.1%)

AIK Solna

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Mjallby AIF side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Mjallby AIF; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (60.1%); HT draw probability is 64.6%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队防守稳健，客队攻击乏力，节奏偏慢，看好主队小胜但总进球不多。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 斯特兰瓦伦球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 12℃～13℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

164 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 14.6%

3:1 7.5%

3:2 5.6%

1:0 4.1%

4:2 3.8%

2:0 3.2%

4:1 2.3%

5:1 2.0%

FT market: side line 0.50 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:0.5/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 2:1 14.6%; 3:1 7.5%; 3:2 5.6%; 1:0 4.1%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 60.1%

1:0 19.9%

0:1 9.2%

1:1 4.3%

2:0 2.6%

0:2 1.3%

2:1 0.9%

3:0 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.00

Mjallby AIF win48.7%

Draw29.3%

AIK Solna win22.1%

Mjallby AIF expected goals1.98

AIK Solna expected goals1.44

Under 3.557.1%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight67.2%

Sample size164

Europe 1X2home 47.3% / draw 25.0% / away 27.7%

Key Variables

First-goal path Mjallby AIF benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 29.3%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 57.1%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:58 CST (started/finished about 580h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:58

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0.5 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Mjallby AIF win · Actual side: AIK Solna win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Mjallby AIF vs AIK Solna is 2:1 (14.6%). Mjallby AIF side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队防守稳健，客队攻击乏力，节奏偏慢，看好主队小胜但总进球不多。 HT first pick is 0:0 (60.1%); HT draw probability is 64.6%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only