Swedish Allsvenskan · Score Research

07-05 20:00 CST · Swedish Allsvenskan · Separate HT/FT models

Kalmar

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 16.8% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 16.8%; 3:1 10.4%; 3:2 6.6%; 4:1 4.2%; 3:0 3.9%; 4:2 2.6%; 4:0 2.6%; 5:1 2.2% Half-time first pick 0:0 (49.7%)

Orgryte

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Kalmar side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Kalmar; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (49.7%); HT draw probability is 56.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队防守稳固但攻击效率低，客队保级战意强但进攻更弱，节奏偏慢，预计小比分主胜或平局，关注主队赢球输盘可能。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / weather risk

Venue: 古德法根竞技场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 微雨, 15℃～16℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather creates a disruption signal, so high-tempo attacking chains and blowout tails are treated more carefully. The totals line is high, but the weather-risk signal keeps unconditional open-game assumptions under review.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

110 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 16.8%

1:1 11.0%

3:1 10.4%

3:2 6.6%

1:2 6.0%

2:2 6.0%

1:0 5.6%

2:0 5.2%

FT market: side line 1.25 · total 3.00 · Bucket ah_ou:1.25/3.0

Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 16.8%; 3:1 10.4%; 3:2 6.6%; 4:1 4.2%; 3:0 3.9%; 4:2 2.6%; 4:0 2.6%; 5:1 2.2%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 49.7%

1:0 24.1%

0:1 9.3%

1:1 5.9%

2:0 5.8%

2:1 1.5%

3:0 1.3%

0:2 0.9%

HT market: side line 0.50 · total 1.25

Kalmar win65.2%

Draw21.3%

Orgryte win13.4%

Kalmar expected goals2.33

Orgryte expected goals1.21

Under 3.553.1%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight57.9%

Sample size110

Europe 1X2home 66.0% / draw 19.1% / away 14.9%

Key Variables

First-goal path Kalmar benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 21.3%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 53.1%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:58 CST (started/finished about 725h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:58

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 1.25 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Kalmar win · Actual side: Kalmar win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Kalmar vs Orgryte is 2:1 (16.8%). Kalmar side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队防守稳固但攻击效率低，客队保级战意强但进攻更弱，节奏偏慢，预计小比分主胜或平局，关注主队赢球输盘可能。 HT first pick is 0:0 (49.7%); HT draw probability is 56.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only