Swedish Allsvenskan · Score Research

07-21 01:00 CST · Swedish Allsvenskan · Separate HT/FT models

Kalmar

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 16.5% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:1 16.5%; 2:1 15.8%; 1:2 9.9%; 2:2 9.3% Half-time first pick 0:0 (61.2%)

Malmo FF

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Kalmar side rates higher

The Asian handicap is close to level, with no clear market gap.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (61.2%); HT draw probability is 65.3%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 卡尔马防守稳健但节奏慢，马尔默进攻稍强但防守漏洞大，平手盘下主队有望进球。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 古德法根竞技场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 阴天, 16℃～17℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

219 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 16.5%

2:1 15.8%

1:2 9.9%

2:2 9.3%

1:3 6.0%

3:1 5.6%

3:2 5.1%

2:3 3.8%

FT market: side line 0.00 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:0.0/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:1 16.5%; 2:1 15.8%; 1:2 9.9%; 2:2 9.3%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 61.2%

1:0 15.3%

0:1 13.2%

1:1 3.9%

2:0 2.1%

0:2 1.8%

2:1 0.8%

1:2 0.7%

HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.25

Kalmar win41.5%

Draw29.5%

Malmo FF win29.0%

Kalmar expected goals1.88

Malmo FF expected goals1.65

Under 3.554.3%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight73.2%

Sample size219

Europe 1X2home 35.7% / draw 26.0% / away 38.3%

Key Variables

First-goal path Kalmar benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 29.5%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 54.3%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:58 CST (started/finished about 360h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:58

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Kalmar win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Kalmar vs Malmo FF is 1:1 (16.5%). Kalmar side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 卡尔马防守稳健但节奏慢，马尔默进攻稍强但防守漏洞大，平手盘下主队有望进球。 HT first pick is 0:0 (61.2%); HT draw probability is 65.3%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only