Swedish Allsvenskan · Score Research

07-26 20:00 CST · Swedish Allsvenskan · Separate HT/FT models

IK Sirius FK

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 11.5% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 11.5%; 3:1 10.2%; 3:0 5.8%; 4:1 5.2%; 4:2 4.6%; 3:2 4.1%; 4:0 3.7%; 5:1 2.2% Half-time first pick 0:0 (37.2%)

IFK Goteborg

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength IK Sirius FK side rates higher

The handicap leans toward IK Sirius FK; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (37.2%); HT draw probability is 47.9%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 天狼星实力碾压且主场强势，哥德堡防守漏洞大，主队大胜概率高，但客队节奏可能偷一球。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 大致天晴, 18℃～19℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Thin sample

31 comparable matches; manual review needed

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 11.5%

1:1 10.9%

3:1 10.2%

2:0 6.3%

3:0 5.8%

1:2 5.5%

1:0 5.3%

4:1 5.2%

FT market: side line 1.25 · total 3.50 · Bucket ah_ou:1.25/3.5

Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 11.5%; 3:1 10.2%; 3:0 5.8%; 4:1 5.2%; 4:2 4.6%; 3:2 4.1%; 4:0 3.7%; 5:1 2.2%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 37.2%

1:0 21.1%

2:0 11.1%

1:1 9.8%

0:1 8.4%

2:1 3.4%

3:0 3.1%

1:2 1.7%

HT market: side line 0.50 · total 1.50

IK Sirius FK win67.3%

Draw19.2%

IFK Goteborg win13.5%

IK Sirius FK expected goals2.52

IFK Goteborg expected goals1.18

Under 3.550.1%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight27.9%

Sample size31

Europe 1X2home 66.0% / draw 18.1% / away 15.9%

Key Variables

First-goal path IK Sirius FK benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 19.2%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 50.1%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:58 CST (started/finished about 221h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:58

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 1.25 · total 3.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: IK Sirius FK win · Actual side: IK Sirius FK win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for IK Sirius FK vs IFK Goteborg is 2:1 (11.5%). IK Sirius FK side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 天狼星实力碾压且主场强势，哥德堡防守漏洞大，主队大胜概率高，但客队节奏可能偷一球。 HT first pick is 0:0 (37.2%); HT draw probability is 47.9%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only