Swedish Allsvenskan · Score Research

08-02 20:00 CST · Swedish Allsvenskan · Separate HT/FT models

IFK Goteborg

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 14.3% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 2:1 14.3%; 3:1 8.1%; 1:0 5.7% Half-time first pick 0:0 (60.4%)

Degerfors IF

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength IFK Goteborg side rates higher

The handicap leans toward IFK Goteborg; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (60.4%); HT draw probability is 64.7%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 哥德堡主场让半球，但防线漏勺；代格福什攻弱守稳，客队偷球概率高。节奏中等偏快，阵容信息不明。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 尤莱维球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 15℃～16℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

104 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 14.3%

3:1 8.1%

1:0 5.7%

2:0 5.6%

3:2 5.1%

3:0 2.7%

4:1 1.7%

4:2 1.1%

FT market: side line 0.50 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:0.5/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 2:1 14.3%; 3:1 8.1%; 1:0 5.7%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 60.4%

1:0 19.9%

0:1 9.0%

1:1 4.2%

2:0 2.6%

0:2 1.2%

2:1 0.9%

3:0 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.00

IFK Goteborg win49.0%

Draw32.2%

Degerfors IF win18.9%

IFK Goteborg expected goals1.83

Degerfors IF expected goals1.25

Under 3.565.1%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight56.5%

Sample size104

Europe 1X2home 50.7% / draw 25.8% / away 23.5%

Key Variables

First-goal path IFK Goteborg benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 32.2%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 65.1%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:58 CST (started/finished about 53h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:58

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0.5 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: IFK Goteborg win · Actual side: IFK Goteborg win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF is 2:1 (14.3%). IFK Goteborg side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 哥德堡主场让半球，但防线漏勺；代格福什攻弱守稳，客队偷球概率高。节奏中等偏快，阵容信息不明。 HT first pick is 0:0 (60.4%); HT draw probability is 64.7%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only