Swedish Allsvenskan · Score Research

07-05 20:00 CST · Swedish Allsvenskan · Separate HT/FT models

IFK Goteborg

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 14.7% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 2:1 14.7%; 3:1 7.8%; 3:2 5.7%; 4:2 4.0% Half-time first pick 0:0 (59.9%)

AIK Solna

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength IFK Goteborg side rates higher

The handicap leans toward IFK Goteborg; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (59.9%); HT draw probability is 64.4%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队主场节奏快但防守漏洞大，客队攻击弱但有机会偷球；天气微雨低温略抑制进球。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / weather risk

Venue: 尤莱维球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 微雨, 15℃～16℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather creates a disruption signal, so high-tempo attacking chains and blowout tails are treated more carefully. The totals line is high, but the weather-risk signal keeps unconditional open-game assumptions under review.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

164 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 14.7%

3:1 7.8%

3:2 5.7%

4:2 4.0%

1:0 3.7%

2:0 3.0%

4:1 2.5%

5:1 2.2%

FT market: side line 0.50 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:0.5/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 2:1 14.7%; 3:1 7.8%; 3:2 5.7%; 4:2 4.0%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 59.9%

1:0 19.9%

0:1 9.3%

1:1 4.4%

2:0 2.6%

0:2 1.3%

2:1 0.9%

3:0 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.00

IFK Goteborg win49.1%

Draw28.8%

AIK Solna win22.1%

IFK Goteborg expected goals2.02

AIK Solna expected goals1.47

Under 3.555.5%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight67.2%

Sample size164

Europe 1X2home 46.2% / draw 25.3% / away 28.4%

Key Variables

First-goal path IFK Goteborg benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 28.8%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 55.5%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:58 CST (started/finished about 725h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:58

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0.5 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: IFK Goteborg win · Actual side: AIK Solna win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for IFK Goteborg vs AIK Solna is 2:1 (14.7%). IFK Goteborg side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队主场节奏快但防守漏洞大，客队攻击弱但有机会偷球；天气微雨低温略抑制进球。 HT first pick is 0:0 (59.9%); HT draw probability is 64.4%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only