Swedish Allsvenskan · Score Research

07-12 20:00 CST · Swedish Allsvenskan · Separate HT/FT models

Hammarby

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 16.0% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 16.0%; 3:1 10.5%; 3:2 6.7%; 4:1 4.6%; 3:0 4.0%; 4:2 2.8%; 4:0 2.8%; 5:1 2.5% Half-time first pick 0:0 (51.1%)

Kalmar

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Hammarby side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Hammarby; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (51.1%); HT draw probability is 57.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 哈马比主场强势，排名第2，战意足；卡尔马客场弱，但保级动机不弱；节奏偏慢，主队小胜可能性大，警惕客队偷球。缺少阵容及伤病信息。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 索德尔球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 16℃～17℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

112 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 16.0%

3:1 10.5%

1:1 10.1%

3:2 6.7%

2:2 6.0%

1:2 5.7%

1:0 5.2%

2:0 4.9%

FT market: side line 1.25 · total 3.25 · Bucket ah_ou:1.25/3.0

Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 16.0%; 3:1 10.5%; 3:2 6.7%; 4:1 4.6%; 3:0 4.0%; 4:2 2.8%; 4:0 2.8%; 5:1 2.5%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 51.1%

1:0 23.5%

0:1 9.0%

1:1 5.7%

2:0 5.6%

2:1 1.4%

3:0 1.2%

0:2 0.9%

HT market: side line 0.50 · total 1.25

Hammarby win67.0%

Draw20.1%

Kalmar win13.0%

Hammarby expected goals2.45

Kalmar expected goals1.22

Under 3.549.9%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight55.0%

Sample size112

Europe 1X2home 65.6% / draw 18.5% / away 15.9%

Key Variables

First-goal path Hammarby benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 20.1%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 49.9%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:58 CST (started/finished about 557h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:58

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 1.25 · total 3.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Hammarby win · Actual side: Hammarby win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Hammarby vs Kalmar is 2:1 (16.0%). Hammarby side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 哈马比主场强势，排名第2，战意足；卡尔马客场弱，但保级动机不弱；节奏偏慢，主队小胜可能性大，警惕客队偷球。缺少阵容及伤病信息。 HT first pick is 0:0 (51.1%); HT draw probability is 57.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only