Swedish Allsvenskan · Score Research

07-19 22:30 CST · Swedish Allsvenskan · Separate HT/FT models

Hammarby

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 12.0% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 12.0%; 3:0 8.9%; 4:1 7.1%; 3:1 7.0%; 4:0 5.8%; 3:2 5.4%; 5:1 3.6%; 5:0 3.0% Half-time first pick 0:0 (39.9%)

Degerfors IF

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Hammarby side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Hammarby; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (39.9%); HT draw probability is 47.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队实力占优且防守稳固，客队进攻乏力，预计主队小胜但进球不多。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / weather risk

Venue: 索德尔球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 微雨, 14℃～15℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather creates a disruption signal, so high-tempo attacking chains and blowout tails are treated more carefully. The totals line is high, but the weather-risk signal keeps unconditional open-game assumptions under review.

5. Sample and soft factors Thin sample

29 comparable matches; manual review needed

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 12.0%

2:0 9.7%

3:0 8.9%

1:0 7.2%

4:1 7.1%

3:1 7.0%

1:1 6.5%

4:0 5.8%

FT market: side line 1.75 · total 3.25 · Bucket ah_ou:1.75/3.0

Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 12.0%; 3:0 8.9%; 4:1 7.1%; 3:1 7.0%; 4:0 5.8%; 3:2 5.4%; 5:1 3.6%; 5:0 3.0%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 39.9%

1:0 28.4%

2:0 10.8%

1:1 7.0%

0:1 6.0%

3:0 2.8%

2:1 1.9%

4:0 1.1%

HT market: side line 0.75 · total 1.25

Hammarby win78.3%

Draw13.4%

Degerfors IF win8.3%

Hammarby expected goals2.71

Degerfors IF expected goals0.87

Under 3.551.4%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight26.6%

Sample size29

Europe 1X2home 76.3% / draw 14.9% / away 8.8%

Key Variables

First-goal path Hammarby benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 13.4%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 51.4%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:58 CST (started/finished about 386h 49m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:58

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 1.75 · total 3.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Hammarby win · Actual side: Hammarby win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Hammarby vs Degerfors IF is 2:1 (12.0%). Hammarby side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队实力占优且防守稳固，客队进攻乏力，预计主队小胜但进球不多。 HT first pick is 0:0 (39.9%); HT draw probability is 47.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only