Swedish Allsvenskan · Score Research

08-01 21:00 CST · Swedish Allsvenskan · Separate HT/FT models

Hacken

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 15.6% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 2:1 15.6%; 1:1 15.6%; 3:1 11.5%; 2:2 8.5% Half-time first pick 0:0 (59.3%)

Kalmar

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Hacken side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Hacken; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (59.3%); HT draw probability is 64.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 赫根主场占优且胜率过半，卡尔马攻弱守弱；指数3球显示进球预期偏高，但节奏偏慢，需防小胜。样本偏薄致阵容不确定。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 加姆拉尤莱维球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 17℃～18℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

199 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 15.6%

1:1 15.6%

3:1 11.5%

2:2 8.5%

1:2 7.4%

3:2 4.9%

2:3 3.4%

2:0 3.3%

FT market: side line 0.75 · total 3.00 · Bucket ah_ou:0.75/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 2:1 15.6%; 1:1 15.6%; 3:1 11.5%; 2:2 8.5%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 59.3%

1:0 19.8%

0:1 9.2%

1:1 4.5%

2:0 2.7%

0:2 1.4%

2:1 1.1%

3:0 0.7%

HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.25

Hacken win54.5%

Draw27.6%

Kalmar win17.9%

Hacken expected goals2.22

Kalmar expected goals1.40

Under 3.551.0%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight71.3%

Sample size199

Europe 1X2home 50.7% / draw 23.2% / away 26.1%

Key Variables

First-goal path Hacken benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 27.6%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 51.0%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:58 CST (started/finished about 76h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:58

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0.75 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Hacken win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Hacken vs Kalmar is 2:1 (15.6%). Hacken side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 赫根主场占优且胜率过半，卡尔马攻弱守弱；指数3球显示进球预期偏高，但节奏偏慢，需防小胜。样本偏薄致阵容不确定。 HT first pick is 0:0 (59.3%); HT draw probability is 64.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only