Swedish Allsvenskan · Score Research

07-07 01:00 CST · Swedish Allsvenskan · Separate HT/FT models

Hacken

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 14.3% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:1 14.3%; 2:1 14.0%; 1:2 9.3%; 2:2 9.1% Half-time first pick 0:0 (61.0%)

Djurgardens

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Hacken side rates higher

The Asian handicap is close to level, with no clear market gap.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (61.0%); HT draw probability is 65.2%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队进攻强，主队防守漏，节奏差异大，大小球盘口大，比赛可能开放，但样本薄风险高。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 加姆拉尤莱维球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 15℃～16℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

217 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 14.3%

2:1 14.0%

1:2 9.3%

2:2 9.1%

3:1 5.7%

1:3 5.7%

3:2 5.2%

2:3 4.0%

FT market: side line 0.00 · total 3.25 · Bucket ah_ou:0.0/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:1 14.3%; 2:1 14.0%; 1:2 9.3%; 2:2 9.1%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 61.0%

1:0 15.1%

0:1 13.2%

1:1 4.0%

2:0 2.2%

0:2 1.8%

2:1 0.8%

1:2 0.7%

HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.25

Hacken win42.4%

Draw27.4%

Djurgardens win30.2%

Hacken expected goals1.92

Djurgardens expected goals1.68

Under 3.552.3%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight55.0%

Sample size217

Europe 1X2home 39.9% / draw 25.3% / away 34.8%

Key Variables

First-goal path Hacken benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 27.4%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 52.3%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:58 CST (started/finished about 696h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:58

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0 · total 3.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Hacken win · Actual side: Djurgardens win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Hacken vs Djurgardens is 1:1 (14.3%). Hacken side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队进攻强，主队防守漏，节奏差异大，大小球盘口大，比赛可能开放，但样本薄风险高。 HT first pick is 0:0 (61.0%); HT draw probability is 65.2%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only