Swedish Allsvenskan · Score Research

07-19 22:30 CST · Swedish Allsvenskan · Separate HT/FT models

Elfsborg

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 14.6% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:2 14.6%; 1:3 7.9%; 0:1 5.1%; 2:3 4.3% Half-time first pick 0:0 (56.8%)

IK Sirius FK

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength IK Sirius FK side rates higher

The handicap leans toward IK Sirius FK; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (56.8%); HT draw probability is 62.9%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队天狼星榜首战意强，攻强守稳；主队防守反击但节奏慢；微雨低温利于防守，总进球可能偏低；客胜概率高。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / weather risk

Venue: 布罗斯球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 微雨, 14℃～15℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather creates a disruption signal, so high-tempo attacking chains and blowout tails are treated more carefully. The totals line is high, but the weather-risk signal keeps unconditional open-game assumptions under review.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

121 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 14.6%

1:3 7.9%

0:1 5.1%

2:3 4.3%

0:2 3.3%

1:4 2.5%

0:3 1.8%

1:5 1.3%

FT market: side line -0.50 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.5/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:2 14.6%; 1:3 7.9%; 0:1 5.1%; 2:3 4.3%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 56.8%

0:1 16.7%

1:0 12.7%

1:1 5.9%

0:2 3.4%

2:0 2.1%

1:2 0.9%

2:1 0.5%

HT market: side line -0.25 · total 1.25

Elfsborg win26.9%

Draw28.5%

IK Sirius FK win44.6%

Elfsborg expected goals1.42

IK Sirius FK expected goals1.79

Under 3.562.8%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight60.2%

Sample size121

Europe 1X2home 26.7% / draw 25.3% / away 48.0%

Key Variables

First-goal path IK Sirius FK benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 28.5%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 62.8%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:58 CST (started/finished about 386h 49m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:58

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap -0.5 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: IK Sirius FK win · Actual side: IK Sirius FK win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Elfsborg vs IK Sirius FK is 1:2 (14.6%). IK Sirius FK side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队天狼星榜首战意强，攻强守稳；主队防守反击但节奏慢；微雨低温利于防守，总进球可能偏低；客胜概率高。 HT first pick is 0:0 (56.8%); HT draw probability is 62.9%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only