Swedish Allsvenskan · Score Research

07-05 22:30 CST · Swedish Allsvenskan · Separate HT/FT models

Elfsborg

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 17.2% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:1 17.2%; 1:2 14.4%; 2:1 12.5%; 1:3 7.2% Half-time first pick 0:0 (56.1%)

Hammarby

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Hammarby side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Hammarby; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (56.1%); HT draw probability is 62.3%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 两队实力接近，节奏偏慢，模型显示平局概率较高，客队稍占优。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 布罗斯球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 14℃～15℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

119 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 17.2%

1:2 14.4%

2:1 12.5%

1:3 7.2%

2:2 6.5%

0:1 5.2%

2:3 4.3%

3:1 3.8%

FT market: side line -0.50 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.5/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:1 17.2%; 1:2 14.4%; 2:1 12.5%; 1:3 7.2%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 56.1%

0:1 17.1%

1:0 12.8%

1:1 6.0%

0:2 3.5%

2:0 2.1%

1:2 0.9%

2:1 0.5%

HT market: side line -0.25 · total 1.25

Elfsborg win28.8%

Draw29.0%

Hammarby win42.3%

Elfsborg expected goals1.45

Hammarby expected goals1.72

Under 3.563.6%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight59.8%

Sample size119

Europe 1X2home 27.2% / draw 24.7% / away 48.2%

Key Variables

First-goal path Hammarby benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 29.0%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 63.6%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:58 CST (started/finished about 722h 49m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:58

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap -0.5 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Hammarby win · Actual side: Hammarby win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Elfsborg vs Hammarby is 1:1 (17.2%). Hammarby side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 两队实力接近，节奏偏慢，模型显示平局概率较高，客队稍占优。 HT first pick is 0:0 (56.1%); HT draw probability is 62.3%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only