Swedish Allsvenskan · Score Research

07-14 01:00 CST · Swedish Allsvenskan · Separate HT/FT models

Djurgardens

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 11.6% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 11.6%; 3:0 8.6%; 4:1 7.8%; 3:1 7.3%; 4:0 5.9%; 3:2 5.7%; 5:1 4.2%; 5:0 3.2% Half-time first pick 0:0 (39.6%)

Halmstads

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Djurgardens side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Djurgardens; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (39.6%); HT draw probability is 46.8%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队攻击强(0.60)客队防守漏(0.16)，市场深让1.75，总球3.25，倾向主队大胜，但客队攻击弱(‑0.35)限制进球。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 泰尔竞技场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 11℃～12℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Thin sample

29 comparable matches; manual review needed

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 11.6%

2:0 8.7%

3:0 8.6%

4:1 7.8%

3:1 7.3%

1:0 6.1%

1:1 5.9%

4:0 5.9%

FT market: side line 1.75 · total 3.25 · Bucket ah_ou:1.75/3.0

Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 11.6%; 3:0 8.6%; 4:1 7.8%; 3:1 7.3%; 4:0 5.9%; 3:2 5.7%; 5:1 4.2%; 5:0 3.2%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 39.6%

1:0 28.4%

2:0 10.9%

1:1 7.1%

0:1 6.0%

3:0 2.9%

2:1 2.0%

4:0 1.1%

HT market: side line 0.75 · total 1.25

Djurgardens win79.4%

Draw12.5%

Halmstads win8.1%

Djurgardens expected goals2.85

Halmstads expected goals0.91

Under 3.547.1%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight26.6%

Sample size29

Europe 1X2home 75.7% / draw 15.9% / away 8.4%

Key Variables

First-goal path Djurgardens benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 12.5%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 47.1%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:58 CST (started/finished about 528h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:58

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 1.75 · total 3.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Djurgardens win · Actual side: Djurgardens win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Djurgardens vs Halmstads is 2:1 (11.6%). Djurgardens side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队攻击强(0.60)客队防守漏(0.16)，市场深让1.75，总球3.25，倾向主队大胜，但客队攻击弱(‑0.35)限制进球。 HT first pick is 0:0 (39.6%); HT draw probability is 46.8%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only