Swedish Allsvenskan · Score Research

07-25 21:00 CST · Swedish Allsvenskan · Separate HT/FT models

Degerfors IF

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 14.5% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:2 14.5%; 1:1 13.1%; 1:3 9.4%; 0:1 6.8% Half-time first pick 0:0 (57.0%)

Djurgardens

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Djurgardens side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Djurgardens; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (57.0%); HT draw probability is 62.9%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队实力碾压，节奏快，主队防守差，但主场可能偷一球，深盘下客队大胜概率较高。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 15℃～16℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

73 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 14.5%

1:1 13.1%

1:3 9.4%

0:1 6.8%

2:2 6.4%

2:1 6.2%

1:4 6.1%

0:2 5.5%

FT market: side line -1.00 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:-1.0/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:2 14.5%; 1:1 13.1%; 1:3 9.4%; 0:1 6.8%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 57.0%

0:1 16.9%

1:0 12.4%

1:1 5.8%

0:2 3.5%

2:0 2.0%

1:2 0.9%

0:3 0.5%

HT market: side line -0.25 · total 1.25

Degerfors IF win18.6%

Draw23.7%

Djurgardens win57.8%

Degerfors IF expected goals1.25

Djurgardens expected goals2.07

Under 3.557.0%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight47.7%

Sample size73

Europe 1X2home 20.3% / draw 22.9% / away 56.8%

Key Variables

First-goal path Djurgardens benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 23.7%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 57.0%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:58 CST (started/finished about 244h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:58

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap -1 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: Djurgardens win · Actual side: Djurgardens win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens is 1:2 (14.5%). Djurgardens side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队实力碾压，节奏快，主队防守差，但主场可能偷一球，深盘下客队大胜概率较高。 HT first pick is 0:0 (57.0%); HT draw probability is 62.9%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only