Swedish Allsvenskan · Score Research

07-12 22:30 CST · Swedish Allsvenskan · Separate HT/FT models

Brommapojkarna

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 14.7% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 1:2 14.7%; 1:3 9.8%; 1:4 6.4%; 2:3 4.9%; 0:3 3.3%; 2:4 2.7%; 0:4 1.7%; 1:5 1.4% Half-time first pick 0:0 (44.2%)

IK Sirius FK

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength IK Sirius FK side rates higher

The handicap leans toward IK Sirius FK; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (44.2%); HT draw probability is 52.5%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 天狼星实力强、排名榜首，客场让球-1，取胜概率高；主队防守差但主场或有机会进球，总进球偏多但节奏不快。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 格里姆斯塔球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 16℃～17℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

73 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 14.7%

1:1 12.7%

1:3 9.8%

2:2 6.9%

2:1 6.5%

1:4 6.4%

0:1 5.3%

2:3 4.9%

FT market: side line -1.00 · total 3.25 · Bucket ah_ou:-1.0/3.0

Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 1:2 14.7%; 1:3 9.8%; 1:4 6.4%; 2:3 4.9%; 0:3 3.3%; 2:4 2.7%; 0:4 1.7%; 1:5 1.4%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 44.2%

0:1 23.5%

1:0 10.4%

1:1 7.9%

0:2 7.3%

1:2 1.9%

0:3 1.3%

2:0 1.2%

HT market: side line -0.50 · total 1.25

Brommapojkarna win19.1%

Draw23.0%

IK Sirius FK win57.8%

Brommapojkarna expected goals1.34

IK Sirius FK expected goals2.17

Under 3.552.9%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight47.7%

Sample size73

Europe 1X2home 20.5% / draw 21.0% / away 58.5%

Key Variables

First-goal path IK Sirius FK benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 23.0%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 52.9%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:58 CST (started/finished about 554h 49m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:58

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap -1 · total 3.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: IK Sirius FK win · Actual side: IK Sirius FK win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Brommapojkarna vs IK Sirius FK is 1:2 (14.7%). IK Sirius FK side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 天狼星实力强、排名榜首，客场让球-1，取胜概率高；主队防守差但主场或有机会进球，总进球偏多但节奏不快。 HT first pick is 0:0 (44.2%); HT draw probability is 52.5%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only