Swedish Allsvenskan · Score Research

07-18 21:00 CST · Swedish Allsvenskan · Separate HT/FT models

AIK Solna

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 18.1% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:1 18.1%; 2:1 15.7%; 1:2 9.9%; 2:2 9.0% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.1%)

GAIS

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength AIK Solna side rates higher

The Asian handicap is close to level, with no clear market gap.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.1%); HT draw probability is 65.9%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队防守稳固，双方节奏慢，进球可能少，平局概率高。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 友谊竞技场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 阴天, 16℃～17℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

219 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 18.1%

2:1 15.7%

1:2 9.9%

2:2 9.0%

1:3 5.8%

3:1 5.3%

3:2 4.7%

2:3 3.5%

FT market: side line 0.00 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:0.0/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:1 18.1%; 2:1 15.7%; 1:2 9.9%; 2:2 9.0%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.1%

1:0 15.3%

0:1 13.2%

1:1 3.7%

2:0 2.0%

0:2 1.7%

2:1 0.6%

1:2 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00

AIK Solna win40.3%

Draw31.0%

GAIS win28.7%

AIK Solna expected goals1.80

GAIS expected goals1.60

Under 3.557.6%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight73.2%

Sample size219

Europe 1X2home 35.9% / draw 26.5% / away 37.6%

Key Variables

First-goal path AIK Solna benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 31.0%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 57.6%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:58 CST (started/finished about 412h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:58

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: AIK Solna win · Actual side: AIK Solna win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for AIK Solna vs GAIS is 1:1 (18.1%). AIK Solna side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队防守稳固，双方节奏慢，进球可能少，平局概率高。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.1%); HT draw probability is 65.9%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only