Norway Adeccoligaen · Score Research

07-28 01:00 CST · Norway Adeccoligaen · Separate HT/FT models

Stabaek

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 13.4% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 13.4%; 3:1 10.0%; 3:2 6.0%; 4:1 4.9%; 3:0 3.5%; 5:1 3.2%; 4:2 3.2%; 4:0 2.4% Half-time first pick 0:0 (39.3%)

Hodd

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Stabaek side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Stabaek; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (39.3%); HT draw probability is 47.4%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队防守弱，客队进攻稍好；节奏偏慢但客队可能进球。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 纳德鲁德体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 17℃～18℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

174 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 13.4%

1:1 11.6%

3:1 10.0%

1:2 7.0%

3:2 6.0%

2:2 5.8%

4:1 4.9%

2:0 4.4%

FT market: side line 1.50 · total 3.50 · Bucket side_ou:home_favored/3.5

Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 13.4%; 3:1 10.0%; 3:2 6.0%; 4:1 4.9%; 3:0 3.5%; 5:1 3.2%; 4:2 3.2%; 4:0 2.4%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 39.3%

1:0 24.3%

2:0 11.8%

1:1 7.6%

0:1 6.1%

3:0 2.6%

0:2 2.2%

2:1 2.1%

HT market: side line 0.75 · total 1.50

Stabaek win61.1%

Draw21.3%

Hodd win17.5%

Stabaek expected goals2.43

Hodd expected goals1.38

Under 3.546.8%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight55.0%

Sample size174

Europe 1X2home 67.1% / draw 17.8% / away 15.1%

Key Variables

First-goal path Stabaek benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 21.3%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 46.8%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:09 CST (started/finished about 192h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:09

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 1.5 · total 3.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Stabaek win · Actual side: Stabaek win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Stabaek vs Hodd is 2:1 (13.4%). Stabaek side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队防守弱，客队进攻稍好；节奏偏慢但客队可能进球。 HT first pick is 0:0 (39.3%); HT draw probability is 47.4%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only