Norway Adeccoligaen · Score Research

07-26 23:00 CST · Norway Adeccoligaen · Separate HT/FT models

Sandnes Ulf

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 14.0% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:2 14.0%; 1:3 8.2%; 2:3 4.9%; 0:1 4.0% Half-time first pick 0:0 (56.4%)

Kongsvinger

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Kongsvinger side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Kongsvinger; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (56.4%); HT draw probability is 62.6%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队排名和实力占优，节奏偏慢但客队进攻稍强，主队防守尚可但进攻疲弱；客场让球显示客队胜望较高，小球格局。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 桑内斯体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 19℃～20℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

121 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 14.0%

1:3 8.2%

2:3 4.9%

0:1 4.0%

0:2 2.9%

1:4 2.9%

0:3 1.8%

2:4 1.6%

FT market: side line -0.50 · total 3.25 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.5/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:2 14.0%; 1:3 8.2%; 2:3 4.9%; 0:1 4.0%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 56.4%

0:1 16.6%

1:0 12.7%

1:1 6.0%

0:2 3.4%

2:0 2.2%

1:2 0.9%

2:1 0.6%

HT market: side line -0.25 · total 1.25

Sandnes Ulf win27.9%

Draw26.9%

Kongsvinger win45.2%

Sandnes Ulf expected goals1.52

Kongsvinger expected goals1.90

Under 3.557.4%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight55.0%

Sample size121

Europe 1X2home 30.3% / draw 22.7% / away 47.0%

Key Variables

First-goal path Kongsvinger benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 26.9%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 57.4%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:09 CST (started/finished about 218h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:09

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap -0.5 · total 3.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: Kongsvinger win · Actual side: Kongsvinger win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Sandnes Ulf vs Kongsvinger is 1:2 (14.0%). Kongsvinger side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队排名和实力占优，节奏偏慢但客队进攻稍强，主队防守尚可但进攻疲弱；客场让球显示客队胜望较高，小球格局。 HT first pick is 0:0 (56.4%); HT draw probability is 62.6%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only