Norway Adeccoligaen · Score Research

08-02 23:00 CST · Norway Adeccoligaen · Separate HT/FT models

Raufoss

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 11.7% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 1:2 11.7%; 1:3 8.1%; 2:3 5.5%; 1:4 5.3%; 0:3 2.7%; 2:4 2.7%; 1:6 1.2%; 0:4 1.2% Half-time first pick 0:0 (38.7%)

Stabaek

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Stabaek side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Stabaek; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (38.7%); HT draw probability is 48.7%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队实力占优但防守有漏，主队有主场之利或能进球；市场大小球3.5偏高，节奏可能开放。样本薄，置信度低。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 15°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

110 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 11.7%

1:1 11.5%

2:2 8.5%

1:3 8.1%

2:1 7.2%

2:3 5.5%

1:4 5.3%

3:1 5.0%

FT market: side line -1.00 · total 3.50 · Bucket side_ou:away_favored/3.5

Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 1:2 11.7%; 1:3 8.1%; 2:3 5.5%; 1:4 5.3%; 0:3 2.7%; 2:4 2.7%; 1:6 1.2%; 0:4 1.2%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 38.7%

0:1 21.8%

1:0 11.1%

1:1 9.6%

0:2 8.6%

1:2 2.6%

0:3 2.4%

2:0 1.8%

HT market: side line -0.50 · total 1.50

Raufoss win24.8%

Draw24.5%

Stabaek win50.7%

Raufoss expected goals1.62

Stabaek expected goals2.24

Under 3.545.0%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight55.0%

Sample size110

Europe 1X2home 21.9% / draw 20.5% / away 57.6%

Key Variables

First-goal path Stabaek benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 24.5%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 45.0%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:09 CST (started/finished about 50h 5m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:09

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap -1 · total 3.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: Stabaek win · Actual side: Stabaek win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Raufoss vs Stabaek is 1:2 (11.7%). Stabaek side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队实力占优但防守有漏，主队有主场之利或能进球；市场大小球3.5偏高，节奏可能开放。样本薄，置信度低。 HT first pick is 0:0 (38.7%); HT draw probability is 48.7%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only