K League · Score Research

07-11 18:30 CST · K League · Separate HT/FT models

Ulsan HD FC

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 18.5% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 18.5%; 2:1 13.7%; 1:2 7.0% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.4%)

Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Ulsan HD FC side rates higher

The Asian handicap is close to level, with no clear market gap.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.4%); HT draw probability is 66.2%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 两队节奏偏慢，防守指数显示失球少，平手盘且大小球2.5，预期低进球平局或小胜。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / heat

Venue: 蔚山文殊球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 28℃～29℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

101 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 18.5%

2:1 13.7%

1:2 7.0%

1:0 7.0%

2:2 6.8%

3:1 5.6%

3:2 5.4%

0:1 5.3%

FT market: side line 0.00 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:0.0/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 18.5%; 2:1 13.7%; 1:2 7.0%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.4%

1:0 14.9%

0:1 13.4%

1:1 3.6%

2:0 1.9%

0:2 1.7%

2:1 0.6%

1:2 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00

Ulsan HD FC win41.7%

Draw31.6%

Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors win26.7%

Ulsan HD FC expected goals1.60

Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors expected goals1.39

Under 3.565.1%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight55.8%

Sample size101

Europe 1X2home 34.7% / draw 27.3% / away 38.0%

Key Variables

First-goal path Ulsan HD FC benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 31.6%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 65.1%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:02 CST (started/finished about 582h 50m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:02

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Ulsan HD FC win · Actual side: Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Ulsan HD FC vs Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors is 1:1 (18.5%). Ulsan HD FC side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 两队节奏偏慢，防守指数显示失球少，平手盘且大小球2.5，预期低进球平局或小胜。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.4%); HT draw probability is 66.2%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only