K League · Score Research

08-02 18:30 CST · K League · Separate HT/FT models

Ulsan HD FC

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 15.3% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 2:1 15.3%; 3:1 6.9%; 3:2 5.1%; 1:0 4.7% Half-time first pick 0:0 (60.5%)

FC Anyang

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Ulsan HD FC side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Ulsan HD FC; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (60.5%); HT draw probability is 64.8%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 高温和两队低节奏指数可能压低进球，市场半球支持主队但优势有限，阵容样本薄增加不确定性。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / heat

Venue: 蔚山文殊球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 33℃～34℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

168 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 15.3%

3:1 6.9%

3:2 5.1%

1:0 4.7%

2:0 3.6%

4:2 3.1%

4:1 2.0%

3:0 1.7%

FT market: side line 0.50 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:0.5/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 2:1 15.3%; 3:1 6.9%; 3:2 5.1%; 1:0 4.7%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 60.5%

1:0 19.8%

0:1 9.1%

1:1 4.2%

2:0 2.5%

0:2 1.3%

2:1 0.9%

3:0 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.00

Ulsan HD FC win46.8%

Draw30.8%

FC Anyang win22.4%

Ulsan HD FC expected goals1.87

FC Anyang expected goals1.40

Under 3.561.1%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight67.7%

Sample size168

Europe 1X2home 45.3% / draw 25.3% / away 29.4%

Key Variables

First-goal path Ulsan HD FC benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 30.8%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 61.1%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:02 CST (started/finished about 54h 50m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:02

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0.5 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Ulsan HD FC win · Actual side: Ulsan HD FC win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Ulsan HD FC vs FC Anyang is 2:1 (15.3%). Ulsan HD FC side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 高温和两队低节奏指数可能压低进球，市场半球支持主队但优势有限，阵容样本薄增加不确定性。 HT first pick is 0:0 (60.5%); HT draw probability is 64.8%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only