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07-21 18:30 CST · K League · Separate HT/FT models

Je

Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 22.0% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 22.0%; 2:1 14.1%; 1:2 8.0% Half-time first pick 0:0 (60.7%)
Da

Daejeon Citizen

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (60.7%); HT draw probability is 65.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 全北现代防守稳固但节奏慢，大田市民进攻乏力，主场优势下小比分概率高。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / weather risk

Venue: 全州市世界杯球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 微雨, 29℃～30℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather creates a disruption signal, so high-tempo attacking chains and blowout tails are treated more carefully. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

104 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 22.0%
2:1 14.1%
1:2 8.0%
3:1 7.4%
2:2 6.7%
1:0 6.6%
2:0 6.1%
3:2 4.5%
FT market: side line 0.50 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:0.5/2.5
Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 22.0%; 2:1 14.1%; 1:2 8.0%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 60.7%
1:0 19.8%
0:1 9.1%
1:1 4.1%
2:0 2.5%
0:2 1.2%
2:1 0.9%
3:0 0.6%
HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.00
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors win47.6%
Draw33.9%
Daejeon Citizen win18.5%
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors expected goals1.73
Daejeon Citizen expected goals1.19
Under 3.569.1%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight56.5%
Sample size104
Europe 1X2home 47.2% / draw 26.8% / away 26.0%

Key Variables

First-goal path Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 33.9%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 69.1%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:02 CST (started/finished about 342h 50m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:02

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0.5 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors vs Daejeon Citizen is 1:1 (22.0%). Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 全北现代防守稳固但节奏慢，大田市民进攻乏力，主场优势下小比分概率高。 HT first pick is 0:0 (60.7%); HT draw probability is 65.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only