K League · Score Research

07-26 18:30 CST · K League · Separate HT/FT models

Incheon United

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 24.6% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 24.6%; 2:1 14.8%; 1:0 9.4% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.1%)

Bucheon FC 1995

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Incheon United side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Incheon United; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.1%); HT draw probability is 65.9%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 两队攻防均弱，节奏慢，主队让球但优势有限，小比分概率高。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / heat

Venue: 仁川足球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 29℃～30℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

102 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 24.6%

2:1 14.8%

1:0 9.4%

3:1 8.0%

2:0 7.0%

0:0 6.5%

1:2 5.1%

2:2 4.6%

FT market: side line 0.75 · total 2.00 · Bucket ah_ou:0.75/2.0

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 24.6%; 2:1 14.8%; 1:0 9.4%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.1%

1:0 19.9%

0:1 8.6%

1:1 3.8%

2:0 2.4%

0:2 1.1%

2:1 0.8%

3:0 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.25 · total 0.75

Incheon United win50.9%

Draw36.4%

Bucheon FC 1995 win12.7%

Incheon United expected goals1.66

Bucheon FC 1995 expected goals0.97

Under 3.575.1%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight56.0%

Sample size102

Europe 1X2home 53.7% / draw 27.2% / away 19.1%

Key Variables

First-goal path Incheon United benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 36.4%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 75.1%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:02 CST (started/finished about 222h 50m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:02

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0.75 · total 2

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Incheon United win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Incheon United vs Bucheon FC 1995 is 1:1 (24.6%). Incheon United side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 两队攻防均弱，节奏慢，主队让球但优势有限，小比分概率高。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.1%); HT draw probability is 65.9%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only