K League · Score Research

07-05 18:30 CST · K League · Separate HT/FT models

Gwangju Football Club

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 13.3% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:2 13.3%; 0:1 8.1%; 1:3 6.5% Half-time first pick 0:0 (48.8%)

Ulsan HD FC

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Ulsan HD FC side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Ulsan HD FC; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (48.8%); HT draw probability is 55.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 蔚山HD实力和排名占优，但攻击指数偏弱；光州主场防守差，微雨影响节奏；看好客队小胜或零封。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / weather risk

Venue: 光州足球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 微雨, 25℃～26℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather creates a disruption signal, so high-tempo attacking chains and blowout tails are treated more carefully.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

203 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 13.3%

0:1 8.1%

1:3 6.5%

0:2 6.3%

0:3 4.0%

2:3 2.9%

1:4 2.8%

2:4 2.1%

FT market: side line -1.25 · total 2.50 · Bucket side_ou:away_favored/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:2 13.3%; 0:1 8.1%; 1:3 6.5%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 48.8%

0:1 25.2%

1:0 9.1%

0:2 6.9%

1:1 6.2%

1:2 1.1%

0:3 1.0%

2:0 0.7%

HT market: side line -0.50 · total 1.00

Gwangju Football Club win19.4%

Draw30.6%

Ulsan HD FC win50.0%

Gwangju Football Club expected goals1.18

Ulsan HD FC expected goals1.80

Under 3.566.3%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight58.0%

Sample size203

Europe 1X2home 14.4% / draw 21.5% / away 64.1%

Key Variables

First-goal path Ulsan HD FC benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 30.6%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 66.3%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:02 CST (started/finished about 726h 50m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:02

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap -1.25 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: Ulsan HD FC win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Gwangju Football Club vs Ulsan HD FC is 1:2 (13.3%). Ulsan HD FC side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 蔚山HD实力和排名占优，但攻击指数偏弱；光州主场防守差，微雨影响节奏；看好客队小胜或零封。 HT first pick is 0:0 (48.8%); HT draw probability is 55.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only