K League · Score Research

07-11 18:30 CST · K League · Separate HT/FT models

Gwangju Football Club

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 0:1 Probability 13.2% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 0:1 13.2%; 1:2 11.6%; 0:2 8.8% Half-time first pick 0:0 (60.0%)

Pohang Steelers

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Pohang Steelers side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Pohang Steelers; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (60.0%); HT draw probability is 64.9%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队浦项制铁实力占优但节奏偏慢，主队光州FC防守差可能偷球，市场倾向客队小胜。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / heat

Venue: 光州足球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 28℃～29℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Thin sample

29 comparable matches; manual review needed

Full-Time Score Distribution

0:1 13.2%

1:2 11.6%

0:2 8.8%

1:3 5.6%

0:3 4.9%

1:4 2.5%

2:3 1.9%

0:4 1.5%

FT market: side line -0.75 · total 2.25 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.75/2.0

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 0:1 13.2%; 1:2 11.6%; 0:2 8.8%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 60.0%

0:1 17.5%

1:0 11.6%

1:1 4.8%

0:2 3.2%

2:0 1.6%

1:2 0.5%

0:3 0.3%

HT market: side line -0.25 · total 0.75

Gwangju Football Club win17.8%

Draw28.8%

Pohang Steelers win53.5%

Gwangju Football Club expected goals0.88

Pohang Steelers expected goals1.59

Under 3.576.6%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight26.6%

Sample size29

Europe 1X2home 17.5% / draw 25.7% / away 56.8%

Key Variables

First-goal path Pohang Steelers benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 28.8%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 76.6%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:02 CST (started/finished about 582h 50m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:02

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap -0.75 · total 2.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 0:1

Predicted side: Pohang Steelers win · Actual side: Pohang Steelers win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Gwangju Football Club vs Pohang Steelers is 0:1 (13.2%). Pohang Steelers side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队浦项制铁实力占优但节奏偏慢，主队光州FC防守差可能偷球，市场倾向客队小胜。 HT first pick is 0:0 (60.0%); HT draw probability is 64.9%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only