K League · Score Research

07-05 18:30 CST · K League · Separate HT/FT models

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 27.6% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 27.6%; 2:1 15.6%; 1:2 9.5% Half-time first pick 0:0 (63.7%)

Jeju SK FC

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Draw carries the highest weight

The Asian handicap is close to level, with no clear market gap.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (63.7%); HT draw probability is 67.2%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 双方攻击力均弱，节奏缓慢，客队防守稍好，平手盘下小球概率高。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / weather risk

Venue: 金泉综合运动场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 微雨, 25℃～26℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather creates a disruption signal, so high-tempo attacking chains and blowout tails are treated more carefully. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

227 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 27.6%

2:1 15.6%

1:2 9.5%

2:2 9.3%

3:1 4.5%

2:3 4.2%

1:0 3.8%

0:0 3.3%

FT market: side line 0.00 · total 2.25 · Bucket ah_ou:0.0/2.0

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 27.6%; 2:1 15.6%; 1:2 9.5%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 63.7%

1:0 15.0%

0:1 12.8%

1:1 3.4%

2:0 1.8%

0:2 1.5%

2:1 0.5%

1:2 0.5%

HT market: side line 0.00 · total 0.75

Gimcheon Sangmu FC win34.3%

Draw41.5%

Jeju SK FC win24.2%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected goals1.58

Jeju SK FC expected goals1.41

Under 3.568.4%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight73.9%

Sample size227

Europe 1X2home 38.0% / draw 27.2% / away 34.8%

Key Variables

First-goal path Gimcheon Sangmu FC benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 41.5%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 68.4%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:02 CST (started/finished about 726h 50m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:02

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0 · total 2.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: draw · Actual side: draw · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju SK FC is 1:1 (27.6%). Draw carries the highest weight. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 双方攻击力均弱，节奏缓慢，客队防守稍好，平手盘下小球概率高。 HT first pick is 0:0 (63.7%); HT draw probability is 67.2%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only