K League · Score Research

07-25 18:30 CST · K League · Separate HT/FT models

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 19.4% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 19.4%; 2:1 12.0%; 1:2 9.8% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.3%)

Daejeon Citizen

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Gimcheon Sangmu FC side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Daejeon Citizen; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.3%); HT draw probability is 66.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 双方攻击力弱，节奏慢，主队让球但进攻指数低，客队防守好，预计低进球平局或小胜。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / heat

Venue: 金泉综合运动场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 30℃～31℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

81 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 19.4%

2:1 12.0%

1:2 9.8%

2:2 7.4%

0:1 6.1%

1:0 5.4%

0:0 5.2%

3:1 5.0%

FT market: side line -0.25 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.25/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 19.4%; 2:1 12.0%; 1:2 9.8%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.3%

1:0 15.2%

0:1 13.2%

1:1 3.6%

2:0 1.9%

0:2 1.7%

2:1 0.6%

1:2 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00

Gimcheon Sangmu FC win35.4%

Draw33.8%

Daejeon Citizen win30.8%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected goals1.49

Daejeon Citizen expected goals1.40

Under 3.568.3%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight50.3%

Sample size81

Europe 1X2home 34.2% / draw 27.6% / away 38.2%

Key Variables

First-goal path Gimcheon Sangmu FC benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 33.8%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 68.3%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:02 CST (started/finished about 246h 50m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:02

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap -0.25 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC win · Actual side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen is 1:1 (19.4%). Gimcheon Sangmu FC side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 双方攻击力弱，节奏慢，主队让球但进攻指数低，客队防守好，预计低进球平局或小胜。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.3%); HT draw probability is 66.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only