K League · Score Research

07-11 18:30 CST · K League · Separate HT/FT models

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 25.6% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 25.6%; 2:1 18.0%; 1:2 8.9% Half-time first pick 0:0 (61.7%)

Bucheon FC 1995

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Gimcheon Sangmu FC side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Gimcheon Sangmu FC; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (61.7%); HT draw probability is 65.7%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队让球偏深但进攻乏力，客队防守稳固，节奏慢，倾向小比分平局。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 金泉综合运动场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 27℃～28℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

201 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 25.6%

2:1 18.0%

1:2 8.9%

2:2 6.2%

3:1 5.8%

1:0 4.8%

3:2 4.2%

0:0 3.6%

FT market: side line 0.50 · total 2.25 · Bucket ah_ou:0.5/2.0

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 25.6%; 2:1 18.0%; 1:2 8.9%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 61.7%

1:0 19.8%

0:1 8.9%

1:1 3.9%

2:0 2.4%

0:2 1.2%

2:1 0.8%

3:0 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.25 · total 0.75

Gimcheon Sangmu FC win44.2%

Draw36.1%

Bucheon FC 1995 win19.7%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected goals1.68

Bucheon FC 1995 expected goals1.25

Under 3.570.5%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight71.5%

Sample size201

Europe 1X2home 47.3% / draw 27.7% / away 25.0%

Key Variables

First-goal path Gimcheon Sangmu FC benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 36.1%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 70.5%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:02 CST (started/finished about 582h 50m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:02

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0.5 · total 2.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 is 1:1 (25.6%). Gimcheon Sangmu FC side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队让球偏深但进攻乏力，客队防守稳固，节奏慢，倾向小比分平局。 HT first pick is 0:0 (61.7%); HT draw probability is 65.7%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only